Scenario Analysis

Scenario analysis is mainly qualitative data analysis as scenarios are based on narrative texts.

The qualitative analysis of documents starts with the elaboration of the text material, i.e. a relevant text passage is highlighted, the text passage, called phrase, is processed and coded.

To assure traceability the text material should be numbered consecutively by the line and paragraph to determine the position of the phrase extracted (it enables immediate localisation of important text passages and checking the broader context, in which an issue originally occurs). The code might be a single word or an acronym (single character or a combination of characters) or a combination of words.

Subsequent step is the assignment of the phrases, identified in the different texts, to the right issue avoiding multiplication of new issues. In doing so, tabs ought to set up to define the metadata and to allow updating them. The title of the issue shall suggest the content and meaning of the issue, and be restricted to the meaning of the phrases included. Hence, coding grounds the interpretation of the analyst (i.e. codes cannot be generated automatically).

Relations among issues can be identified either by a text passage (i.e. phrase that is identified, extracted and coded by the analyst) or by the expertise of the analyst. The network of issues and relations generated grounds the CCD .

In order to close the gap between scenarios and simulation models, the process of transforming scenarios into simulation models may require the following structured information for creating the simulation model (parts of CCD ):

  •  social networks (i.e. actors and dependencies),
  • social processes,
  • skill tables,
  •  conditions (evidences) and consequences (actions),
  • if-then rules


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